Shares of Harley-Davidson Inc. HOG, -1.22% fell 0.7% in morning trading Monday, after KeyBanc Capital analyst Brett Andress turned bearish on the motorcycle maker, citing concerns over competition from Polaris Inc.’s PII, +1.85% Indian brand of bikes.
Andress cut his rating on Harley’s stock to underweight, after being at sector weight since August 2017, and set his price target at $33, which is 15.5% below current levels.
“Indian’s new Challenger bike is aimed squarely at [Harley’s] dominant Road Glide ([about] 80% share of 32K-unit market),” Andress wrote in a note to clients. “Indian introduced the Challenger bike on Oct. 29 to immediate fanfare and, on paper, the bike surpasses its competition in almost every important metric (primarily a new liquid-cooled engine), a setup we view as likely to disrupt a rather complacent status quo.”
Polaris’s stock rose 0.9% in morning trading. Andress estimates the new competition could drive an earnings-per-share headwind of about 25 cents. Harley’s stock has rallied 14.5% year to date, while Polaris shares have surged 30.4% and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.37% has gained 23.0%.